Detection of Multiple Structural Breaks in Large Covariance Matrices

This article studies multiple structural breaks in large contemporaneous covariance matrices of high-dimensional time series satisfying an approximate factor model. The breaks in the second-order moment structure of the common components are due to sudden changes in either factor loadings or covariance of latent factors, requiring appropriate transformation of the factor models to facilitate estimation of the (transformed) common factors and factor loadings via the classical principal component analysis. With the estimated factors and idiosyncratic errors, an easy-to-implement CUSUM-based detection technique is introduced to consistently estimate the location and number of breaks and correctly identify whether they originate in the common or idiosyncratic error components. The algorithms of Wild Binary Segmentation for Covariance (WBS-Cov) and Wild Sparsified Binary Segmentation for Covariance (WSBS-Cov) are used to estimate breaks in the common and idiosyncratic error components, respectively. Under some technical conditions, the asymptotic properties of the proposed methodology are derived with near-optimal rates (up to a logarithmic factor) achieved for the estimated breaks. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed method and its comparison with other existing approaches. We finally apply our method to study the contemporaneous covariance structure of daily returns of S&P 500 constituents and identify a few breaks including those occurring during the 2007–2008 financial crisis and the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. An package "” is provided to implement the proposed algorithms.

Structural Breaks in Interactive Effects Panels and the Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

Dealing with structural breaks is an essential step in most empirical economic research. This is particularly true in panel data comprised of many cross-sectional units, which are all affected by major events. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most sectors of the global economy;however, its impact on stock markets is still unclear. Most markets seem to have recovered while the pandemic is ongoing, suggesting that the relationship between stock returns and COVID-19 has been subject to structural break. It is therefore important to know if a structural break has occurred and, if it has, to infer the date of the break. Motivated by this last observation, the present article develops a new break detection toolbox that is applicable to different sized panels, easy to implement and robust to general forms of unobserved heterogeneity. The toolbox, which is the first of its kind, includes a structural change test, a break date estimator, and a break date confidence interval. Application to a panel covering 61 countries from January 3 to September 25, 2020, leads to the detection of a structural break that is dated to the first week of April. The effect of COVID-19 is negative before the break and zero thereafter, implying that while markets did react, the reaction was short-lived. A possible explanation is the quantitative easing programs announced by central banks all over the world in the second half of March.

Economic policy uncertainty, governance institutions and economic performance in Africa: are there regional differences?

In recent years, the global economy has witnessed several uncertainty-inducing events. However, empirical evidence in Africa on the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on economic activities remains scanty. Besides, the moderating effect of governance institutions on the uncertainty-economic performance relationship in Africa and the likelihood of regional differences in the response of economic activities to EPU on the continent are yet to be investigated. To address these gaps, we applied system GMM and quantile regressions on a panel of forty-seven African countries from 2010 to 2019. We find that while global EPU and EPUs from China, USA and Canada exert considerable influence on economic performance in Africa, the effects of domestic EPU and EPUs from Europe, UK, Japan, and Russia were negligible, suggesting that African economies are resilient to these sources of uncertainty shocks. We also find that governance institutions in Africa are not significantly moderating the uncertainty-economic performance relationship. However, our results highlighted regional differences in the response of economic activities to uncertainty, such that when compared to East and West Africa, economic performance in Central, North and Southern Africa is generally more resilient to global EPU and EPUs from China, USA, Europe and UK. We highlighted the policy implications of these findings.

Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of U.S. GDP

We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of U.S. real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with stochastic volatility components as the baseline statistical model. We augment the model with information from the survey expectations by aligning the first and second moments of the predictive distribution implied by this baseline model with those extracted from the survey information at various horizons. Results indicate that survey information bears valuable information over the baseline model for nowcasting GDP. While the mean survey predictions deliver valuable information during extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the variation in the survey participants' predictions, often used as a measure of "ambiguity,” conveys crucial information beyond the mean of those predictions for capturing the tail behavior of the GDP distribution.

Spatial analysis of the spread of Covid-19 and its demographic consequences in the regions of the South of European Russia

The article presents results of the multi-scale analysis of the processes of coronavirus infection spread and its impact on the demographic situation in the world, Russia and regions of the South of the European part of Russia. The methodological basis of the study was the principles of geoinformation monitoring, making it possible to process and visualize large volumes of diverse materials. The information base was statistical data from the Russian and foreign sources reflecting the spread of coronavirus infection at various spatial levels from global to regional-local. The characteristic features of changes in the parameters of the disease during its active expansion are described. The article also deals with dynamics in demographic indicators and identifies trends in their widespread deterioration. The contribution of the South of European Russia macro-region to the all-Russian Covid-19 situation is determined. Development of the coronavirus pandemic at the level of municipal districts is analyzed using individual regions as an example. The study identifies main factors of the Covid-19 pandemic development and demonstrates some of its features and consequences in the largest urban agglomerations.

Igniting an Intersectional Shift in Public Policy Research (and Training)

Tout au long des années 2010, l'une des principales préoccupations en ce qui concerne les politiques publiques et les débats sur celles-ci était la compréhension des sources d'inégalité, de même que le rôle du gouvernement dans la lutte contre l'inégalité des revenus. Bien que des progrès aient été réalisés, d'importantes lacunes subsistent en matière d'inégalité – lacunes qui vont bien au-delà de l'inégalité des revenus et que la pandémie de COVID-19 a mises en évidence. L'expérience de la pandémie nous rappelle que les individus qui forment la société vivent des expériences distinctes et que l'attention à l'inégalité et à la diversité doit s'intégrer étroitement à des cadres stratégiques actualisés. Après la COVID-19, alors que les gouvernements s'engagent à ce que la relance soit équitable et dans le contexte d'un désir généralisé pour une société plus juste, une approche inclusive de l'analyse des politiques est nécessaire afin de remédier aux défaillances de longue date de l'économie et de la société. Les cadres stratégiques actualisés doivent être plus représentatifs des expériences et des luttes des populations marginalisées et sous-représentées, et leur accorder plus d'attention. L'intersectionnalité est un outil analytique ancré dans le paradigme de la justice sociale qui met au jour les liens entre les notions d'identité et les systèmes de pouvoir à travers lesquels elles se déploient. L'intersectionnalité tient compte de la façon dont nos identités se forment : à l'intersection de divers construits sociaux, tels que la race, la capacité, la classe et le genre, et dans des contextes et des structures de pouvoir plus vastes, comme le marché du travail et les institutions gouvernementales. L'intégration complète de l'intersectionnalité à l'analyse des politiques permettrait de mettre en place une structure d'analyse des politiques qui ferait avancer les programmes politiques centrés sur la diversité, l'inclusion et l'équité.Alternate :Throughout the 2010s, a major focus of public policy and public policy debates was about understanding the sources of inequality and understanding the role of government in addressing income inequality. While progress has been made, significant gaps in inequality remain-gaps that go well beyond income inequality and that were emphasized throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The experiences of the pandemic have served as a reminder that individuals in society have distinct experiences, and that attention to inequality and diversity needs to be seriously incorporated into modernized policy frameworks. As governments commit to a fair recovery from COVID-19 amid a broad desire for a more just society, a more inclusive approach to policy analysis is required to address longstanding failures in the economy and society. Modernized policy frameworks need to be more representative of and attentive to the experiences and struggles of marginalized and underrepresented populations. Intersectionality is an analytical tool rooted in the social justice paradigm that makes clear the links between notions of identity and the systems of power through which they play out. Intersectionality considers the ways in which our identities are formed at the intersections of various social constructs, such as race, ability, class, and gender, and within broader contexts and structures of power, such as the labour market and government institutions. Fully integrating intersectionality into policy analysis could create a policy analysis structure that would advance policy agendas of diversity, inclusion, and equity.

Estimating the effects of legalizing drug e-commerce

With the technological development the e-commerce channel began to spread to all sectors of the economy. In 2020 with the introduction of sanitary and epidemiological restrictions because of COVID-19 pandemic, many countries lifted the ban of drug e-commerce. Such changes are interesting from the point of view of health economics, and the opening of this sales channel significantly reduces transaction costs and increases the physical availability of drugs, especially in regions with low population density. The article attempts to evaluate the effects of legalization of online sales of drugs on price level and the degree of market concentration (the concentration of the 5 largest companies is used as a proxy), and also uses new methods to estimate the effects of legalizing e-commerce on drug markets. High rates of industry and drug market concentration can lead to a noticeable decrease in the availability of goods. Legalizing e-commerce can be seen as a way to reduce market concentration by facilitating market entry for small firms. The effects of lifting the ban on remote drug sales are estimated using regression analysis on panel data, cross-country matching, and synthetic control. Empirical estimates provide an overall picture of the effects of legalizing online drug sales. After allowing remote drug sales market concentration decreases, indicating a reduction in information asymmetry and switching costs. This effect is particularly important for countries with a high proportion of pensioners, for whom the switching costs are noticeably higher ceteris paribus. Allowing distance trade, due to reducing information asymmetry, drug pricing also slows down, that is, in addition to increasing physical accessibility, opening this channel also increases economic accessibility.

Reproductive birth control after the coronavirus pandemic

Changes in measures and instruments of birth control are one of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in all countries with increased significance of reproductive components, i.e. concerning physiological capabilities of conception, gestation and childbirth. Pandemic-associated measures had diverse impacts on restrictive (aimed at reducing fertility) and expansionary (aimed at increasing fertility) methods of reproductive regulation: it did not take methods of pregnancy prevention and artificial termination of pregnancy long to adapt to the new conditions without changing the established trends, while assisted reproductive technologies, following administrative bans of the first days of mass lockdowns, demonstrated new development directions upon removal of bans.Against the background of the progress in the medical component, increasingly bringing in- vitro fertilization closer to natural conception, the scale of state funding and the number of free of charge programs for patients have increased, however, due to anti-epidemic control, cross-border reproductive care or fertility tourism, relevant for surrogacy and reproductive donation, has become more complicated. In Russia, this has intensified public discussions and contributed to further elaboration of reproductive legislation.

Long-Term Care Staffing Policies Pre-COVID-19 and Pandemic Responses: A Case Comparison of Ontario and British Columbia

À la fin de mai 2020, les cas de COVID-19 chez les résident·es des établissements de soins de longue durée (SLD) en Ontario représentaient 5 157 des 28 499 cas de la province. En Colombie-Britannique (C.-B.), il y avait 339 cas chez les résident·es de ces établissements, comparativement à un total provincial de 2 562 cas. Bien que le secteur des SLD de ces deux provinces présente certaines différences, cet article passe en revue les politiques de dotation en personnel des SLD dans chacune des deux provinces avant la pandémie et compare leurs mesures de prévention de la COVID-19 ayant trait à la dotation pour 2020. Aux politiques de l'Ontario avant 2020 correspondent des ratios personnel-patients inférieurs à ceux de la Colombie-Britannique, ce qui peut avoir eu un effet limitant sur les réactions de l'Ontario à la pandémie. L'établissement de normes ou de lignes directrices ainsi qu'une modification du financement pourraient améliorer la résilience du secteur des SLD en matière de dotation en personnel.Alternate :By late May 2020, COVID-19 cases among long-term care (LTC) residents in Ontario constituted 5,157 of the province's 28,499 cases. In British Columbia (B.C.), there were 339 cases among LTC residents compared with a provincial total of 2,562 cases. While the LTC sectors in these two provinces have some differences, this article reviews their pre-pandemic LTC staffing policies and compares their staffing-related COVID-19 prevention measures in 2020. Ontario's policies before 2020 corresponded with lower staff-to-patient ratios than B.C., which may have constrained Ontario's pandemic responses. Implementation of standards or guidelines and changes to funding could help achieve LTC sector staffing resiliency.

PANDEMIA COVID-19: IMPACTO ECONOMICO Y POLITICAS ANTICICLICAS. SIMULACIONES BASADAS EN UN MODELO DE EQUILIBRIO GENERAL COMPUTADO DE ARGENTINA

Se ha adaptado un modelo de equilibrio general computado de Argentina para analizar el impacto de la pandemia Covid-19 en la economía y el rol de las políticas anticíclicas para mitigar dicho impacto. Las simulaciones del modelo arrojan resultados consistentes con lo observado en 2020 mostrando un fuerte impacto negativo en el PBI, el desempleo y el bienestar de los hogares. El paquete de políticas anticíclicas logra mitigar en el corto plazo el impacto adverso acerca de algunas variables macroeconómicas y, en particular, respecto del bienestar. Pero a mediano y largo plazo, la menor acumulación de capital y creciente endeudamiento implican menor crecimiento y bienestar. Una política fiscal sostenible -que estabilice la relación deuda-productopermite mediante mayor inversión y empleo que la economía y el bienestar recuperen los niveles del escenario base (recién) al cabo de 10 años.Alternate :A computable general equilibrium model of Argentina was adapted to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemia on the economy and to assess the mitigating effects of anticyclicalpolicies. The simulations are consistent with the observed performance of GDP, unemployment and social welfare. The anticyclical program is effective in reducing the short term adverse impact on several economic and social indicators, particularly, on social welfare. But over the medium and long term, smaller capital accumulation and sovereign indebtment imply lower growth and welfare. A sustainable fiscal policy -that stabilizes the debt-GDP ratio- allows the economy to, through higher investment and employment creation recover the base scenario levels (only) after 10 years.

The impact of transition to a remote work format on the mental health of employees

The subject of employee mental well-being has recently been discussed in the Russian corporate world and now it is a hot topic. According to the survey results, most domestic companies consider the problem of employee burnout to be important and recognize its negative impact on the staff, while over half are reluctant to do anything about it. However, for those companies that started thinking about implementing employee psychological wellness programs before 2019, the pandemic accelerated the process. The purpose of our study is to identify the causal relationship between the shift to remote working in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic and the mental state of workers. In-depth interviews with HR managers of the Russian branches of six large international companies and econometric analysis were used in this work. The research reveals that the abrupt shift to work from home (WFH) had a negative impact on employee mental state, which forced the companies to promptly implement new measures to support their workers. Over time, the staff was able to adapt to the new environment, and the opposite effect was observed: during the subsequent waves, those who were at WFH felt more psychologically stable compared to those transferred to a remote format later.

АНАЛІЗ ТЕНДЕНЦІЙ РОЗВИТКУ ГРОШОВО-КРЕДИТНОЇ СИСТЕМИ УКРАЇНИ

Bid устшност'1 фуищоиуваиия иацоиально!' грошово-кредитноi системи залетать ефективнсть органiзацľí в Kpami грошового обгу, девостi проведения заходв монетарного регулюваиия з боку центрального банку кроши i мотливкть задовольняти потреби спотивачв у р'вномаштиих иих ф'шансових послугах, а такот дieвiсть заход'ю щодо вдбудови иaшоiекоиомiкu у повоенний пер'юд i мотливкть нормального функцюнування в умовах военного стану. Метою статт'> е аналв теиденцй розвитку гpошово-кpедитиоi системи Украши, визначення етапв ii становления, а такот осиовиих проблем у поточний пер'юд. У робот'1 дотдтено становления та етапи розвитку грошово-кредитно!'системи в Укра'щ а саме визначено так ключов'! етапи: з 1991 р. - започаткування шституцшного становления грошово-кредитно!'системи;з 1996р. - введения иацюиальио!грошовоi одииицр з 1999 р. - подолання свтово!' фiиaисовоi кризи 1998 р. та розбудова нацонально!'грошово-кредитно!' системи;з 2009 р. - подолання наслдкв свтово!' фiиaисовоi кризи 2008 р.;з 2015 р. - подолання наслдкв росшсько-укра'шсько!' вiйии 2014 р.;з 2020 р. - подолання наслдкв свтово!' фiиaисовоi кризи 2019 р., прискореноi пандемею коpоиaвipусу;з 2022 р. - стабмвацю та подолання иаслдкв активно!' фази агресн роси проти Украши. Проаналвовано деяк ключовi показники, що характеризують грошово-кредитну систему кра'ши, а саме: дииaмiку грошово!' бази кра'ши, змии обл'шово!'ставки, щорчний прирст шдексу спотивчих цш, дииaмiку к'шькоmi дючих банюв та !'х активв, дииaмiку та структуру кредитв, що иaдaиi баиквськими установами, змiии pеитaбельиостi активв та катталу банквських установ. Проаналзовано основнi ризики та причини !'х виникнения у гpошово-кpедuтиiй системi Украши пд час вiйии. Визначено основнi поточи проблеми грошово-кредитно!' системи Украши у военний перод, а такот запропоновано деяк напрями !'х подолання. Запропоновано для оздоровления баиквського сектора вивести з ринку иедiездaтиi банки;для забезпечення шфляцшио!' стaбiльиостi иеобхдио забезпечити повернення до реалзацк полiтики iифляцiйиого таргетуваиия;для вдбудови економки, зокрема реального сектора, необхдно пом'якшити вимоги регулюваиия кредитио!'дяльиостi, впровадтувати нструменти цльового стимулювання кредитно! aктивиостi банквських установ.Alternate :The successful functioning of the national monetary system determines the efficiency of the country's money circulation, the effectiveness of monetary regulation measures taken by the country's central bank, and the ability to meet the needs of consumers for various financial services, as well as the effectiveness of measures to rebuild our economy in the post-war period and the ability to function normally under martial law. The purpose of the article is to analyze the trends in the development of the monetary system of Ukraine, to identify the stages of its formation along with the main problems in the current period. The publication examines the formation and stages of development of the monetary system in Ukraine, namely, identifying the following key stages: since 1991 - the beginning of the institutional formation of the monetary system;since 1996 - introduction of the national currency;since 1999 - overcoming the global financial crisis of 1998 and further development of the national monetary system;since 2009 - overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008;since 2015 - overcoming the consequences of the russian-Ukrainian war of 2014;since 2020 - overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2019, accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic;since 2022 - stabilization and overcoming the consequences of the active phase of russia's aggression against Ukraine. Some key indicators characterizing the country's monetary system are analyzed, namely: the dynamics of the country's monetary base, changes in the discount rate, annual growth in the consumer price index, dynamics of the number of operating banks and their assets, dynamics and structure of loans granted by banking institutions, changes in the return on assets and capital of banking institutions. The main risks and causes of their occurrence in the monetary system of Ukraine during the wartime are analyzed. The main current problems of the monetary system of Ukraine in the wartime period are identified, and some directions for overcoming them are proposed. It is proposed that in order to sanitize the banking sector, it is necessary to withdraw insolvent banks from the market;to ensure inflationary stability, it is necessary to ensure a return to the implementation of inflation targeting policy;to restore the economy, in particular the real sector, it is necessary to ease the requirements for regulating loaning activity, to introduce instruments for targeted stimulation of loaning activity of banking institutions.

Long-term dynamics of informal employment and its relationship with the poverty of the Russian population against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic

The study aims at assessing the prevalence of informal employment in the Russian labour market and evaluating its relationship with the risks of monetary poverty. Empirically, the study bases on the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS HSE) for 2000-2020. Calculations have shown that over the past 20 years, on average, about a quarter of Russian employees were included in the informal labour market for their main or secondary employment. The results of the study provide some evidence on the existence of several zones of informality in the Russian labour market, in which there are different motives for deformalization, in particular: low-skilled employment in the informal sector, employment only in the format of informal part-time / side jobs ("casual employment”) and partial departure to the informal sector while maintaining an official employment contract at the main place of work. Employment with part or all of the pay for the main job received informally — that is, without a formal contract or with declared wages below the actual wage received, in violation of current regulations — is more common among men, young people and people of early working age, and as well as citizens with education below vocational secondary. At the same time, women, people aged 30–49, and citizens with vocational secondary education predominate in the structure of informally employed, although with a slight preponderance. Regression analysis shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between involvement in the informal labour market and the risks of monetary poverty: fully informal employment in 2019 is associated with higher chances of the respondent's household falling into poverty, and with lower chances in 2020.

The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on hospitality stock returns in China

Coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) has already devastated the world, and the economy becomes the most critical challenge for any country worldwide. The increasing uncertainty of the COVID‐19 outbreak has made stock markets in China more turbulent and less predictable. Under the current exceptional circumstances, the hospitality industry suffered the most due to the travel restrictions. This research thus assesses the dynamic relationship among the COVID‐19 outbreak, macroeconomic fluctuations and hospitality stock returns based on a structural VAR framework from 13 January to 11 May 2020, in China. Evidence reveals that macroeconomic fluctuations and hospitality stock returns are significantly affected by shocks from the COVID‐19 outbreak. An unanticipated positive change of the COVID‐19 explosion triggers an addition in exchange rates and causes a reduction in the stock market and hospitality industry returns. For the impacts of the exchange rate, findings reveal that a surprise increase in exchange rates (currency depreciation) exerts a significant negative influence on stock market returns. Additionally, a positive change of stock market returns is linked to a decline in exchange rates and a rise in hospitality industry returns. Therefore, knowledge of these relationships can enable policymakers to evaluate and implement effective policies to stabilize the stock markets and help investors to make appropriate investment strategies.

Covid‐19 outbreak and stocks return on the West African Economic and Monetary Union's stock market: An empirical analysis of the relationship through the event study approach

This study uses the Wilcoxon's signed ranks test to identify the effect of the Covid‐19 outbreak on the stocks returns of companies listed on the West African Economic and Monetary Union's (WAEMU) stock market by considering two event dates (January 23, 2020 and March 2, 2020). To account for the temporal volatility in the event approach, the study resort to a GARCH model. Empirical findings suggest that January 23, 2020 event (first case of death due to Covid‐19 in China) have had a minor impact on the WAEMU stock market while the event on March 2, 2020 (first case of Covid‐19 in the WAEMU) strongly affected the financial market. This negative impact is much more pronounced for the distribution sectors (−34.16%). Robustness analysis reveals that the main information leading to disruption on the market is the weekly death cases and not the confirmed cases. In addition, government anti‐Covid‐19 measures such as social distancing and governance positively affect the stock return whereas lockdown, public health measures and movement restrictions contribute to a decline in the stock's price.

Analyzing airlines stock price volatility during COVID‐19 pandemic through internet search data

Recent Coronavirus pandemic has prompted many regulations which are affecting the stock market. Especially because of lockdown policies across the world, the airlines industry is suffering. We analyse the stock price movements of three major airlines companies using a new approach which leverages a measure of internet concern on different topics. In this approach, Twitter data and Google Trends are used to create a set of predictors which then leads to an appropriately modified GARCH model. In the analysis, first we show that the ongoing pandemic has an unprecedented severe effect. Then, the proposed model is used to analyse and forecast stock price volatility of the airlines companies. The findings establish that our approach can successfully use the effects of internet concern for different topics on the movement of stock price index and provide good forecasting accuracy. Model confidence set (MCS) procedure further shows that the short‐term volatility forecasts are more accurate for this method than other candidate models. Thus, it can be used to understand the stock market during a pandemic in a better way. Further, the proposed approach is attractive and flexible, and can be extended to other related problems as well.

Hedging against risks associated with travel and tourism stocks during COVID‐19 pandemic: The role of gold

The global lockdowns including movement restrictions during COVID‐19 pandemic impacted the hospitality business negatively and by extension the trading of related stocks such as travel & tourism stocks. Owing to the long standing hedging potential of gold, we examine whether this potential can be extended to the travel & tourism stocks in order to hedge against the associated risks caused by the current pandemic. Using daily data from January 2016 to July 2020 and constructing optimal portfolio strategies, we find that gold serves as a very strong hedge and safe haven for travel & tourism stocks, most especially in the pandemic period. This conclusion validates the inclusion of gold in the diversified portfolio of travel & tourism stocks in order to improve the risk‐adjusted return performance for investors in the sector particularly during COVID‐19 pandemic.

Analysis of default risk in microfinance institutions under the Basel III framework

International organizations such as OECD, WBG, IMF, UN and EU, as well as research studies, have highlighted the increasing contribution being made by microcredit finance institutions (MFIs) to financial inclusion, sustainable economic development and the fight against poverty. However, access to MFI credit is still far from the desired level for small and micro‐enterprises, especially in developing countries. The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, where approximately half of the small formal companies do not have access to credit, have the world's highest financial gap ratio compared to potential demand (87%). In this context, effective instruments are needed to assess default risk, through credit ratings. Based on the Basel III regulations, an empirical study was conducted of two microcredit portfolios corresponding to two MFIs in two Latin American countries (Bolivia and Colombia) during the period 2012–2015, to identify the explanatory variables of the probability of default on loans granted by MFIs, using a logistic regression model and a neural network. The results obtained show that the main variables in this respect are the amount of the loan, the number of payments in arrears, the guarantees provided, the assessment of the credit analyst, male gender of the borrower and the level and trend of the general stock exchange index. The conclusions presented advance previous research findings and may be useful for MFI managers, regulatory institutions, financial analysts, scholars, policy‐makers and applicants for microcredits to undertake a business project, especially in times of emerging crisis, such as that caused by the Covid‐19 pandemic.

Socio-demographic determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Russia in the context of mandatory vaccination of employees

The paper offers an analysis of socio-demographic factors determining uptake of COVID-19 vaccine in Russia in 2021. The study focuses in particular on the role of mandatory vaccination of workers in certain sectors of the economy. The study is empirically based on three rounds of a nationally representative telephone survey, conducted in February–October 2021, which investigated the situation and behaviour of a cross section of the Russian adult population in the context of the spread of coronavirus.The paper shows that the key factors behind vaccine uptake are age and education of the individual. People in older age groups and people with higher education are most inclined towards vaccination. By contrast, young people and people with low levels of education are least likely to be vaccinated. Other significant determinants of vaccination are experience of COVID-19 infection (self or a household member) and elderly or chronically ill members of the household. Among the employed, the economic sector where they work is an important determinant: workers in education, health care, and state and municipal administration are more likely to be vaccinated. The introduction of mandatory vaccination at a firm/organization with sanctions for unvaccinated employees has significant positive effect: the likelihood of an employee being vaccinated increases by 10 percentage points. The effect of mandatory vaccination is slightly greater for men than for women.

La privatización de los sistemas de salud, la pandemia y la desprivatización en debate

En el artículo se analizan los procesos de privatización llevados a cabo en los sistemas de salud de la Argentina, el Brasil, Chile y Colombia. Se describe y caracteriza la participación de los componentes públicos y privados de cada uno de estos sistemas y se analiza el aspecto político de las políticas públicas incluidas en dichos procesos de privatización. Los resultados ponen de manifiesto la presencia de múltiples relaciones público-privadas que se configuraron de diversas formas en el transcurso del tiempo. Asimismo, se analizan algunas respuestas que los sistemas de salud brindaron y algunos desafíos que enfrentaron durante la pandemia de enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19), así como el papel que desempeñaron las organizaciones privadas en particular. Con este análisis se pretende examinar la trayectoria de las políticas estudiadas y determinar sus límites y potencialidades para revertir los procesos de privatización.